A Real-Time Identification Algorithm and Epidemic Model Associated with Social Distancing Index for Control Applications: COVID-19 Analysis and Simulations in the United States

Marcus V Americano Da Costaa

doi:10.26717/bjstr.2021.33.005477

Abstract

Marcus V Americano da Costaa1* and Igor M L Patarob2 Author Affiliations 1Department of Chemical Engineering (DEQ), Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), 02 Professor Aristides Novis, Brazil 2CIESOL, Department of Informatics, University of Almer´ıa, Ctra. Almer´ıa, Spain Received: February 09, 2021| Published: February 16, 2021 Corresponding author: Marcus V Americano da Costaa, Department of Chemical Engineering (DEQ), Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), 02 Professor Aristides Novis, Brazil DOI: 10.26717/BJSTR.2021.33.005477

Highlights

The COVID-19 pandemic is the most severe problem in terms of public health of the last hundred years in the world
The SIRD model examined in this paper describes the dynamics of a population divided into compartments of susceptible (S) and symptomatic infections (I)
As depicted in the work of Fernandez-Villaverde and Jones [34], dealing the SIRD +ψ model with β associated with social distancing, the effects on the epidemic can be analyzed as a function of transmission rate inherent to the virus and health policies, which connects the model better and improves accuracy to fit data

Summary

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic is the most severe problem in terms of public health of the last hundred years in the world. Professionals well know this type of subject from the health area [2,3], other different scientific communities from mathematics, physics, and engineering have proposed strategies of forecasts, decision-making, and social distancing to decrease the velocity of the disease transmission [4,5,6]. In this context, the art of mathematical modeling [7] appears as an efficient technique to analyze and develop practical solutions for dynamic systems like an epidemic. This model is applied in different forecast scenarios for India’s current epidemic and four of its cities, as presented by Malavika et al [11]

Methods

Results

Conclusion