A reaction–diffusion epidemic model with incubation period in almost periodic environments

Abstract

In this paper, we propose and study an almost periodic reaction–diffusion epidemic model in which disease latency, spatial heterogeneity and general seasonal fluctuations are incorporated. The model is given by a spatially nonlocal reaction–diffusion system with a fixed time delay. We first characterise the upper Lyapunov exponent λ* for a class of almost periodic reaction–diffusion equations with a fixed time delay and provide a numerical method to compute it. On this basis, the global threshold dynamics of this model is established in terms of λ* It is shown that the disease-free almost periodic solution is globally attractive if λ* < 0, while the disease is persistent if λ* > 0. By virtue of numerical simulations, we investigate the effects of diffusion rate, incubation period and spatial heterogeneity on disease transmission.