A Rational Approach to Handle Uncertainty and Complexity in Marine Systems Design

Abstract

Years of volatile shipping market dynamics have intensified the need for more effective handling of uncertainty in conceptual and basic ship design processes. More recently, necessary climate remedial efforts in shipping have revealed the complexity associated with the facts-based selection of proper “green” technologies and ship design solutions, the control of their resulting extra costs and operational and commercial consequences. Naval architects and marine engineers and their ship design firms or shipyard affiliations, more than ever, have seen their expertise, knowledge, work practices, toolboxes and business concepts challenged - to the extent of capacity limits and perhaps beyond? Thus, the development of more advanced tools, more effective business concepts and efficient work procedures becomes increasingly important. Improved design processes must come, hand-with-hand, with new and refreshed expertise. This paper builds on the premise that uncertainty and complexity influence the effectiveness of the decision-making process in ship design. We argue, therefore, that to improve the way daily ship design activities are carried out it is necessary to better understand the influence of uncertainty and complexity on such transactions and to implement methods and tools to eliminate or reduce the associated detrimental effects on design quality and efficiency. The purpose of this paper is to explore, contrast, discuss and provide quantitative facts as to what are these inherent uncertainties and complexities and how do they influence effective decision making relating to conceptual ship design approaches and their design firms’ competitiveness. This complementary research work combines, summarizes and reports the research findings from two recent finalized PhD Thesis; Effectiveness in Decision-Making in Ship Design under Uncertainty and Handling Ship Design Complexity to enhance Competitiveness in Ship Design. The research work is well-grounded in the systems theory paradigm and this paper presents its results in the form of specific ways in which a revised systemic ship design approach can help ship designers and their firms to better handle uncertainty and complexity in their future dealings with a dynamic market situation and immature “greening” technologies based on the findings in the PhD Thesis.