A Radar-Based Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Algorithm to Overcome the Impact of Vertical Gradients of Warm-Rain Precipitation: The Flood in Western Germany on 14 July 2021

Abstract

Abstract The demand of accurate, near-real-time radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE), which is key to feed hydrological models and enable reliable flash flood predictions, was highlighted again by the disastrous floods following after an intense stratiform precipitation field passing western Germany on 14 July 2021. Three state-of-the-art rainfall algorithms based on reflectivity Z, specific differential phase KDP, and specific attenuation A were applied to observations of four polarimetric C-band radars operated by the German Meteorological Service [DWD (Deutscher Wetterdienst)]. Due to the large vertical gradients of precipitation below the melting layer suggesting warm-rain processes, all QPE products significantly underestimate surface precipitation. We propose two mitigation approaches: (i) vertical profile (VP) corrections for Z and KDP and (ii) gap filling using observations of a local X-band radar, JuXPol. We also derive rainfall retrievals from vertically pointing Micro Rain Radar (MRR) profiles, which indirectly take precipitation gradients in the lower few hundreds of meters into account. When evaluated with DWD rain gauge measurements, those retrievals result in pronounced improvements, especially for the A-based retrieval partly due to its lower sensitivity to the variability of raindrop size distributions. The VP correction further improves QPE by reducing the normalized root-mean-square error by 23% and the normalized mean bias by 20%. With the use of gap-filling JuXPol data, the A-based retrieval gives the lowest errors followed by the Z-based retrievals in combination with VP corrections. The presented algorithms demonstrate the increased value of radar-based QPE application for warm-rain events and related potential flash flooding warnings.