Abstract
Promoting carbon emissions of the transportation industry to reach the peak as soon as possible is an effective way to control carbon emissions in China. Combined with the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model and the Tapio decoupling model, this paper tries to predict and analyze the time, path, and quality of carbon peaking in the transportation industry in China and its eastern, central, and western regions. The research shows the following: 1) Under the “benchmark scenario,” the transportation industry in China and its three regions will not achieve the international commitment of achieving peak carbon emissions by 2030. 2) Under the “radical scenario,” the peak time of China’s transportation industry can be reached in 2027, which is 5 years earlier, 10% peak value lower than that in the “benchmark scenario.” In that scenario, in transportation industry, the eastern region will reach the carbon peak in 2025 and the central and western regions will both reach the carbon peak in 2028. By then, the peak quality of carbon emissions will be better than that under the “benchmark scenario” in transportation industry. This paper can provide theoretical support for promoting carbon emission reductions and carbon peaking in China’s transportation industry.
Highlights
To combat climate change, greenhouse gases need to be reduced mainly from CO2 emissions in China (Sun et al, 2021)
Research on carbon emission reductions and carbon peaking in the transportation industry is of great significance for China to achieve the 2030 goal
In scenario 1, it is assumed that the energy structure is cleaner than that in the benchmark scenario in 2030 and 2035, i.e., the oil and gas proportion will be reduced to 70% in 2030 and 65% in 2035
Summary
Greenhouse gases need to be reduced mainly from CO2 emissions in China (Sun et al, 2021). As the world’s largest economy emitting greenhouse gases (Chen et al, 2020; Zhao et al, 2021), China has set a two-stage goal of peaking the carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 to actively shoulder the international responsibility for carbon emission reductions (CPG, 2020a). As the foundation of national economic and social development, the transportation industry’s carbon emissions have maintained a rapid growth trend, with an average annual growth rate of as high as 8%. The growth trend of carbon emissions in the transportation industry may slow down the overall process of China’s carbon peak. Research on carbon emission reductions and carbon peaking in the transportation industry is of great significance for China to achieve the 2030 goal
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