Abstract
Herbert W. Heinrich, a pioneer researcher in the field of occupational safety, published a book on occupational accidents in 1931. In the publication, Heinrich presented an Accident Pyramid, which affirmed that one workplace fatality would occur after 300 no-injury accidents have been recorded in a workplace. Heinrich’s Accident Pyramid has since been adopted as a standard for predicting the likelihood that fatalities will occur. Moreover, Heinrich’s claim on occupational accidents was adopted as a standard because of his reputation as a pioneer of occupational safety research. This study seeks to test the statistical hypothesis put forward by Heinrich in reference to General Aviation (GA) accidents and does so with a random subsample of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) data. Retrospective data published for public use by NTSB was collected from 2004 to 2013 for 15,119 GA accidents (with a mean fatal accident count of ≈ 282). The pyramid was initially recommended for use in predicting all forms of accidents, including GA accidents. Notwithstanding, the analysis of an independent variable x, the number of total accidents, and a dependent variable y, the number of fatalities, produced a p-value of approximately 0.821, which indicates no correlation between the variables. There was no statistically significant relationship found between the total number of accidents and fatal accidents, as asserted by Heinrich. This study, therefore, demonstrates that Heinrich’s Accident Pyramid is statistically invalid. Consequently, this means that a fatality may still occur even if the total number of accidents is reduced.
Highlights
Heinrich is a pioneer in the field of accident prevention
Heinrich is widely praised for drawing attention to the need for employers and governments to focus on workplace accident prevention as a means of eliminating the injuries suffered by workers in various occupational work environments
Retrospective data published for public access and use by the United States National Transportation Safety Board Source: U.S National Transportation Safety Board (2013)
Summary
Heinrich is a pioneer in the field of accident prevention. Four editions of “Industrial Accident Prevention: A Scientific Approach,” representing his research work on accident causation and prevention, were published within approximately 30 years. Heinrich has more influence in the field of occupational safety and health, concerning accident causation and prevention, than any other occupational safety practitioner in recent history (Manuele, 2011). Heinrich’s work on accident prevention has influenced the work of others in the field of occupational safety like Frank E. An employee of the Insurance Company of North America, pursued and disseminated Heinrich’s theories on accident causation and prevention (Manuele, 2011). Heinrich’s theories on accident causation and prevention are widely accepted by many people in the field of occupational safety as a standard. His study’s research problem was focused on showing a connection between significant accidents and minor injuries in work environments. The study’s research question was, “Is there a relationship between significant injuries and minor accidents?”
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