Abstract
BackgroundThe poultry industry in Egypt has been suffering from endemic highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, subtype H5N1 since 2006. However, the emergence of H9N2, H5N8, and H5N2 in 2011, 2016, and 2019 respectively, has aggravated the situation. Our objective was to evaluate how effective are the mitigation strategies by a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) model which used daily outbreak data of HPAI-H5N1 subtype in Egypt, stratified by different successive epidemic waves from 2006 to 2016.ResultsBy applying the epidemiologic problem-oriented approach methodology, a conceptual scenario tree was drawn based on the knowledgebase. Monte Carlo simulations of QRA parameters based on outbreak data were performed using @Risk software based on a scenario-driven decision tree. In poultry farms, the expected probability of HPAI H5N1 prevalence is 48% due to failure of mitigation strategies in 90% of the time during Monte Carlo simulations. Failure of efficacy of these mitigations will raise prevalence to 70% with missed vaccination, while failure in detection by surveillance activities will raise it to 99%. In backyard poultry farms, the likelihood of still having a high HPAI-H5N1 prevalence in different poultry types due to failure of passive and active surveillance varies between domestic, mixed and reservoir. In mixed poultry, the probability of HPAI-H5N1 not detected by surveillance was the highest with a mean and a SD of 16.8 × 10–3 and 3.26 × 10–01 respectively. The sensitivity analysis ranking for the likelihood of HPAI-H5N1 in poultry farms due to missed vaccination, failure to be detected by passive and active surveillance was examined. Among poultry farms, increasing vaccination by 1 SD will decrease the prevalence by 14%, while active and passive surveillance decreases prevalence by 12, and 6%, respectively. In backyard, the active surveillance had high impact in decreasing the prevalence by 16% in domestic chicken. Whereas the passive surveillance had less impact in decreasing prevalence by 14% in mixed poultry and 3% in domestic chicken.ConclusionIt could be concluded that the applied strategies were not effective in controlling the spread of the HPAI-H5N1 virus. Public health officials should take into consideration the evaluation of their control strategies in their response.
Highlights
The poultry industry in Egypt has been experiencing endemic highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, subtype H5N1 (HPAI-H5N1) since 2006 [1]
It is expected that HPAI-H5N1 prevalence rates in farm will increase to 70% with missed vaccination P2, while in case of failure in detection by surveillance (P3 and P4), it will increase up to 99%
Sensitivity analysis The sensitivity analysis ranking of regression coefficients of tornado graph (Fig. 3) shows that the likelihood of HPAI-H5N1 prevalence rate has on six epidemic waves (EW (1–6)) in the poultry farms (B1) in Menoufia, Egypt due to missed vaccination, failure to detect of sickly poultry by passive or active surveillance was examined
Summary
The poultry industry in Egypt has been experiencing endemic highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, subtype H5N1 (HPAI-H5N1) since 2006 [1]. Control strategy changed to mainly mass vaccination, surveillance, and preemptive culling of infected birds to combat the disease [11]. Despite these control efforts applied by the government, HPAI-H5N1 became endemic by 2008 with continuous and extensive circulation revealed by the regular nationwide active, passive, and targeted surveillance activities [11,12,13,14,15,16,17]. Our objective was to evaluate how effective are the mitigation strategies by a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) model which used daily outbreak data of HPAI-H5N1 subtype in Egypt, stratified by different successive epidemic waves from 2006 to 2016
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