A quantitative risk assessment model of Salmonella contamination for the yellow-feathered broiler chicken supply chain in China

Abstract

A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was developed to investigate the health risk associated with Salmonella contamination in yellow-feathered broiler chicken supply chain in China extending from the farm to home consumption. A baseline model was developed based on most common industrial practices for risk estimates. Critical control points along the supply chain were identified using sensitivity analysis. Scenario analysis was conducted to compare the effectiveness of applicable intervention strategies on risk reduction, including alternative processing strategies in slaughter house and different storage conditions. Input parameters for the model were determined by onsite investigation, laboratory experiments and literature studies. The final risk estimate was expressed as the probability of salmonellosis per serving and the intervention effectiveness was expressed as the relative change in salmonellosis risk if an intervention had been implemented compared with the baseline. The model estimated that the mean predicted probability of illness per serving was 1.1 × 10−8 for baseline. Full cooking, reducing farm contamination, chlorine concentrations in chilling and cross-contamination in wholesale were the most significant factors in reducing the health risk. Scenario analysis indicated that post-evisceration spraying with a combination of electrolyzed water and sodium hypochlorite could result in the greatest relative risk reduction (343.8-fold reduction). The developed QMRA model provided a framework for estimating the health risk of Salmonella contamination in yellow-feathered broiler in China, and was applicable in determining the strategies to control Salmonella contamination for poultry industry.