Abstract
Simulating the congestion propagation of urban rail transit system is challenging, especially under oversaturated conditions. This paper proposes a quantitative model for analyzing the congestion prorogation process through formalizing the propagation by a congestion susceptibility recovery process. Apart from that, a model for calculating congestion propagation rate is constructed, which is the key parameter in the former quantitative model. A grey system model is also introduced to quantify the propagation rate under the joint effect of six influential factors: passenger flow, train headway, passenger transfer convenience, time of congestion occurring, initial congested station and station capacity. A numerical example is used to illustrate the congestion propagation process and to demonstrate the improvements after taking corresponding measures.
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