Abstract
Measures to mitigate climate change are being considered all over the world. Reducing the use of air conditioners is one such measure. While it seems to be effective in mitigating climate change, it may also reduce individuals’ well-being and increase the risk of heatstroke. To compare the impact of reducing air conditioner use and the mortality risks, the indicator Loss of Happy Life Expectancy (LHpLE), which measures the reduction in the length of life that individuals can spend happily, was used. The reduction in well-being due to non-use of air conditioners was obtained by applying the propensity score matching method to the results of a questionnaire. We evaluated the impact of reducing air conditioner use in both the current and future situation in comparison to the mortality risk from flood and heatstroke, respectively. The increase in mortality risk due to flooding was estimated based on numerical simulation, and the increase in the risk of mortality due to heatstroke was estimated based on existing reports in Japan. Using these results, the magnitude of the impacts on LHpLE caused by the reduction in well-being due to the non-use of an air conditioner and the increase in the mortality risks were compared, both for the current situation and the future. The results show that LHpLE due to non-use of air conditioners was much greater than that due to the risk of mortality due to flood and heatstroke, and implied that reducing air conditioner use is not necessarily a good way as a mitigation measure. This result would be useful for creating and implementing measures to counter climate change and could also be applied in many other fields.
Highlights
Climate change is a pressing issue in a variety of research fields today
The reduction in the rate of people experiencing a feeling of happiness due to non-use of an air conditioner was greater when the propensity score matching method was not used than when the method was used
The Loss of Happy Life Expectancy (LHpLE) due to non-use of air conditioners was estimated for males, and the half value was used in the later analysis as the gender average since the gender ratio in Japan is almost half and half
Summary
It is estimated that climate change will have severe consequences on societies all over the world. It is expected that warmer temperature would make extreme rainfall events heavier and more frequent and flood risk would increase in many regions all over the world [1,2,3]. Another paper indicated extreme precipitation with a return period of 20 years will occur more frequently over most mid-latitude and wet tropical regions in the future [4]. It is expected that warm temperature extremes will increase in the future [8,9,10] and that this will increase the risk of mortality from cardiovascular disease, respiratory illnesses, heatstroke, infectious diseases, and other causes [11,12,13]
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