Abstract
This paper reviews the progress of the multiple population mortality model and the defects in parameter estimation and proposes an effective method to improve the performance of the mortality model. We set up a multiple population group, using the data of mainland China, Hong Kong (China), and Japan, to test fitting performance and forecasting performance. Using the TSWLS and TSSVD methods in a multiple population stochastic mortality model has advantages in fitting performance and robustness. In addition, the forecasting value of mortality ratio between any two populations can converge to a fixed constant in a certain time period which obeys the regular of human biological characteristics.
Highlights
With the demographic dividend gradually disappearing worldwide, it is common for the elders to have fewer children
E Lee–Carter model assumes that the logarithmic mortality is composed of independent age and period effects, with fewer model parameters, simple fitting process, robust forecasting results, and other advantages, which has been widely used by scholars all over the world. e Lee–Carter model applies a two-stage method to estimate parameters
The APC model is used in medicine for a long time, the idea of modelling stochastic mortality originated from the Lee–Carter model
Summary
With the demographic dividend gradually disappearing worldwide, it is common for the elders to have fewer children. E research on the method of forecasting of mortality has experienced the development from a single population model to multiple population model. E Lee–Carter model assumes that the logarithmic mortality is composed of independent age and period effects, with fewer model parameters, simple fitting process, robust forecasting results, and other advantages, which has been widely used by scholars all over the world. It is found that the multiple population stochastic mortality model has become the frontier progress, and there have been studies on the quantitative comparison of different types of multiple mortality models, but the quantitative comparison of parameter estimation methods is still blank. Erefore, this paper selects East Asian countries and regions, including Hong kong (China) and Japan to build a multiple population model with mainland China to compare quantitatively the methods of parameter estimation.
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