A quantitative and constraint-specific method to assess the potential impact of new agricultural technology: the case of frost resistant potato for the Altiplano (Peru and Bolivia)

Abstract

A quantitative and constraint-specific approach to assess the potential impact of new agricultural technology is described and applied to frost resistant potato cultivars for the Altiplano (Peru and Bolivia). The approach uses geo-referenced databases and a simulation model. Calculations are made for small grid cells, and no arbitrary delimitation of agroecological zones is needed. The LINTUL potato growth simulation model was adapted to incorporate the effect of frost damage on yield. High-resolution grids of monthly climate data were created for a number of variables, including absolute minimum temperature and its standard deviation, and used as input for the simulation model. The model was run for each grid cell, using a standard potato cultivar for which frost resistance parameters were changed in increments of 1 °C. A geo-referenced database of potato distribution was used to process the output of the simulation model to calculate potato-area weighted results. When frost resistance increases from −1 °C (current level) to −2 or −3 °C, average potato yield increases by 26 and 40%, respectively. After that, the effect tapers off and a further increase in resistance leads to only a small increase in simulated potato yield.