A quadratic application in farm planning under uncertainty

Abstract

Farming in Bangladesh is confronted with various types of uncertainties, which contribute to farmers’ income volatility over the years. As a result, cereal, mainly rice, which is a less riskier crop remained dominantly planted in the current farm plan. But the return generated from rice cultivation has not been able to improve the livelihood of the poor, as rice profitability is low compared to some profitable but risky crops like jute and vegetables. To investigate the behavioral pattern of the farmers towards risk, Dhaka division, largely known as central region of Bangladesh, is selected. The prevailing farm plan of Dhaka division is compared with the efficient one at the current level of expected return in order to check whether the current farm plan is risky or otherwise. Quadratic and MOTAD as well as linear programming techniques have been employed for the analysis. The result of the study reveals that the prevailing farm plan in Dhaka division is risky compared to the efficient plan. Since the current return level is low, the study has recommended that more jute and vegetables should be planted to achieve higher remuneration.