Abstract
Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs – to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS.
Highlights
Agriculture is exposed to considerable challenges posed by changes in climate, environment, demography, policy, technology, consumer preferences and trade
We address two major research questions: (i) which quality criteria should Eur-Agri-Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) satisfy to form the basis of Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) at various spatial scales? and (ii) how can a typical development process, i.e. protocol, be conducted to obtain storylines that are consistent with the global SSPs and relevant to scientists and stakeholders?
With respect to the structure, we propose that storylines that aim at enriching global SSPs – such as the Eur-Agri-SSPs – should follow a
Summary
Agriculture is exposed to considerable challenges posed by changes in climate, environment, demography, policy, technology, consumer preferences and trade. O’Neill et al (2014) recommend distinguishing between ‘basic’ and ‘extended’ SSPs, whereby extended SSPs are meant to build on the basic SSPs and provide more details to support national, sub-national, or sectoral analyses Following this concept, Biewald (2016) proposes extended SSPs for European agriculture and identifies key elements for IAAS that are missing or are insufficiently described in the SSPs including, for instance, European agricultural policy. Rose nzweig et al (2013) and Valdivia et al (2015) have developed the concept of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to link global RCPs and SSPs with the needs of national and regional IAAS They suggest reframing the scenario matrix by using geo-biophysical and socio-economic indicators as contextual factors. The article is structured as follows: in section 2, we describe the methodology for developing a protocol; section 3 introduces the work ing steps of the protocol; in section 4, challenges of the storyline development process are discussed; and in section 5, conclusions are drawn
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