Abstract

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) caused by viruses are increasing in frequency, causing a high disease burden and mortality world-wide. The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel SARS-like coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) underscores the need to innovate and accelerate the development of effective vaccination strategies against EIDs. Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) molecules play a central role in the immune system by determining the peptide repertoire displayed to the T-cell compartment. Genetic polymorphisms of the HLA system thus confer a strong variability in vaccine-induced immune responses and may complicate the selection of vaccine candidates, because the distribution and frequencies of HLA alleles are highly variable among different ethnic groups. Herein, we build on the emerging paradigm of rational epitope-based vaccine design, by describing an immunoinformatics tool (Predivac-3.0) for proteome-wide T-cell epitope discovery that accounts for ethnic-level variations in immune responsiveness. Predivac-3.0 implements both CD8+ and CD4+ T-cell epitope predictions based on HLA allele frequencies retrieved from the Allele Frequency Net Database. The tool was thoroughly assessed, proving comparable performances (AUC ~0.9) against four state-of-the-art pan-specific immunoinformatics methods capable of population-level analysis (NetMHCPan-4.0, Pickpocket, PSSMHCPan and SMM), as well as a strong accuracy on proteome-wide T-cell epitope predictions for HIV-specific immune responses in the Japanese population. The utility of the method was investigated for the COVID-19 pandemic, by performing in silico T-cell epitope mapping of the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein according to the ethnic context of the countries where the ChAdOx1 vaccine is currently initiating phase III clinical trials. Potentially immunodominant CD8+ and CD4+ T-cell epitopes and population coverages were predicted for each population (the Epitope Discovery mode), along with optimized sets of broadly recognized (promiscuous) T-cell epitopes maximizing coverage in the target populations (the Epitope Optimization mode). Population-specific epitope-rich regions (T-cell epitope clusters) were further predicted in protein antigens based on combined criteria of epitope density and population coverage. Overall, we conclude that Predivac-3.0 holds potential to contribute in the understanding of ethnic-level variations of vaccine-induced immune responsiveness and to guide the development of epitope-based next-generation vaccines against emerging pathogens, whose geographic distributions and populations in need of vaccinations are often well-defined for regional epidemics.

Highlights

  • Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are defined as infections whose incidence or geographic range is rapidly increasing or threatens to increase in the near future

  • We demonstrate the utility of the tool in the context of vaccine development for COVID-19 pandemic, by providing insight into putative T-cell epitopes and hotspots in the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein that are potentially immunodominant for the countries where the ChAdOx1 vaccine (University of Oxford/AstraZeneca) is currently carrying out phase III clinical trials (The United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil)

  • Predivac-3.0 was implemented and assessed for its new capability of CD8+ T-cell epitope prediction, based on specificity-determining residues (SDRs) positions that were determined in the peptide-HLA class I interaction interface through a combination of structural analysis of pHLA complex crystal structures and sequence analysis of HLA polymorphisms

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Summary

Introduction

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are defined as infections whose incidence or geographic range is rapidly increasing or threatens to increase in the near future. EIDs have emerged at an unprecedented rate due to a plethora of factors driven by globalization and climate change, posing serious threats to public health and economies [1]. Wildlife is considered to be the major source of viral pathogens causing emerging zoonotic outbreaks [2], including mosquito-borne diseases (e.g., dengue, Zika fever) [3], rodent-borne hantaviruses [4] and bat-borne diseases [5], such as Ebola hemorrhagic fever, Nipah virus encephalitis and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). According to the World Health Organization (WHO), disease outbreaks and epidemics caused by emerging pathogens are increasing in frequency over the past decades [6]. In late 2019, the novel SARS-like CoV designated as 2019-nCoV (SARSCoV-2) emerged in the city of Wuhan, China, causing a global pandemic with high morbidity and mortality [7]. As of August 23nd 2020, SARS-CoV-2 has caused ~23 million cases of the disease (COVID-19) and ~800,000 deaths across the world

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