A prospective cohort study of two predictor models for 30-day emergency readmission in older patients.

Abstract

To undertake a prospective study of the accuracy of two models (LACE and BOOST) in predicting unplanned hospital readmission in older patients (>75years). Data were collected from a single centre prospectively on 110 patients over 75years old admitted to the acute medical unit. Follow-up was conducted at 30days. The primary outcome was the c-statistic for both models. The readmission rate was 32.7% and median age 82years, and both BOOST and LACE scores were significantly higher in those readmitted compared with those who were not. C-statistics were calculated for both tools with BOOST score 0.667 (95% CI 0.559-0.775, P=.005) and LACE index 0.685 (95% CI 0.579-0.792, P=.002). In this prospective study, both the BOOST and LACE scores were found to be significant yet poor, predictive models of hospital readmission. Recent hospitalisation (within the previous 6months) was found to be the most significant contributing factor.