Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m–km, days–weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.
Highlights
West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most widely distributed mosquito-borne viruses and represents a global public health threat [1,2]
We developed a framework for applying models to decisions and tested it on 13 representative models that have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics
Rather than identify individual models, we identified research teams studying spatiotemporal dynamics of WNV based on academic conference presentations, recent publications, involvement in one of the 5 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Regional Centers of Excellence, and referral to participate in a workshop hosted by the National Socio-Ecological Synthesis Center (SESYNC)
Summary
West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most widely distributed mosquito-borne viruses and represents a global public health threat [1,2]. In the United States, WNV is the most common vector-borne virus with at least 51,801 human cases and 2,390 fatalities reported between its introduction in 1999 and 2019 [3]. WNV has had substantial negative economic impacts through healthcare costs (about $368 million to $2.4 billion in Texas in 2012) [4] and in equine-related veterinary financial burdens (e.g., $1.9 million in 2002 in North Dakota prior to the vaccine in 2004) [5]. In addition to human and veterinary disease, WNV has impacted avian populations being reported in over 300 species of birds in the US [6]. Effective preparedness and prevention are vital to reduce the direct and indirect impacts of WNV on human health, the environment, and the economy
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