A prognostic nomogram for papillary thyroid cancer lymph node metastasis based on immune score.

Abstract

Papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) is the most common subtype of thyroid cancer and is characterized by an overall good prognosis and early-stage lymph node metastasis. The immune microenvironment is believed to play a crucial role in PTC initiation, progression and metastasis. However, to our knowledge, prognostic tools for thyroid cancer metastasis based on immune scores have not been adequately explored. This study aimed to construct a clinical nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis in patients with PTC. The genomic data and clinical-pathological characteristics of 447 PTC subjects were obtained from TCGA (The Cancer Genome Atlas data). Logistic regression models were performed for univariate and multivariate analyses to identify significant prediction factors. A prognostic nomogram was built based on the multivariate analysis results. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were used to assess the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the model. The patients were divided into two subgroups based on immune scores. We found that patients with high immune scores had significantly higher lymph node metastasis risks (OR and 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.774[1.130-2.784]) than those with low immune scores. The C-index for lymph node metastasis was 0.722 (95% CI, 0.671-0.774), which had a favorable performance for clinical prediction. The calibration curve for lymph node metastasis showed significant agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation. High immune scores are significantly correlated with higher lymph node metastasis risk in patients with PTC. Immune score-based prognostic nomograms may help to predict lymph node metastasis and have potential clinical application possibilities.