A prognostic model to predict survival after hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy for hepatocellular carcinoma with portal vein invasion.

Abstract

e16157 Background: We aimed to establish a prognostic model to predict survival for the patient with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after the treatment with hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) of oxaliplatin plus fluorouracil/leucovorin. Methods: 164 patients diagnosed of HCC with portal vein invasion and treated with HAIC of oxaliplatin plus fluorouracil/leucovorin between 1/2018 and 1/2021 at the Guangdong provincial people’s hospital and were randomly divided to training(N=82) and validation(N=82) cohort. We investigated the impact of baseline characteristics and tumour load on overall survival (OS, log-rank test) and developed a prognostic model in the training cohort by using a stepwise Cox regression model and validated in validation cohort. Results: The final presentation of the model was “NCV-score= 0.974* serum neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio+ 1.239* Child-pugh stage+ 0.661* portal Vein invasion grade”, which further selected the first quartile of the linear predictor, namely 5.7, as cut-off values. The NCV-score differentiated two risk categories(≥5.7, ＜5.7) with distinct prognosis (median OS: 6.6 vs. 11.2 months, p <0.001). The prognostic model was used to develop nomogram for predicting individual survival of HAIC candidates and was validated in validation cohort to identify patients who obtain satisfying survival benefit for HAIC. Conclusions: The NCV-score identifies advanced HCC patients who obtain satisfying survival benefit for HAIC of oxaliplatin plus fluorouracil/leucovorin and provides individual survival predicting.[Table: see text]