A prognostic model for early recurrence prediction in hepatocellular carcinoma after liver resection.

Abstract

e15021 Background: Recurrence resulting in high morbidity of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients received radical liver resection, the majority of which occur within 1 to 3 years. The study aims to find risk factors and set up a prognostic model predicting early recurrence of HCC. Methods: From 2003 to 2010, 196 HCC patients underwent liver resection were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to assess variables. A recurrence risk model was developed with independent prognostic factors. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) was carried out to evaluate its predictive value. Results: The median follow-up time was 33 months (1-103M), median RFS was 22 months. Total tumor volume (TTV), hepatitis B, Child-Pugh score, and portal vein tumor thrombus were independent factors of recurrence. Patients with TTV>115cm3 had worse RFS (28.9% vs 51.7%, p<0.000) and OS (64.4% vs 80.1%, p=0.032) than those TTV≤115cm3. We established a risk model consisted of the 4 parameters, and classified patients into four stages. There were significant differences between each stage, especially for the 1st year. (1-yr RFS: 80.1% vs 47.8% vs 28.6% vs 0%, p=0.000, AUC 0.682). Compared to four currently used staging systems (BCLC, TNM, CLIP, and Okuda), the new model could well predict patient’s survival with the largest AUC in both RFS and OS (Table). Conclusions: TTV has been found a preferable description of tumor burden and a prognostic factor in HCC. This prognostic model predicts early tumor recurrence and survival of patients received radical liver resection and might contributes to the selection of patients who may benefit from surgery. [Table: see text]