A Prognostic and Health Management Framework for Aero-Engines Based on a Dynamic Probability Model and LSTM Network

Abstract

In this study, a prognostics and health management (PHM) framework is proposed for aero-engines, which combines a dynamic probability (DP) model and a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). A DP model based on Gaussian mixture model-adaptive density peaks clustering algorithm, which has the advantages of an extremely short training time and high enough precision, is employed for modelling engine fault development from the beginning of engine service, and principal component analysis is introduced to convert complex high-dimensional raw data into low-dimensional data. The model can be updated from time to time according to the accumulation of engine data to capture the occurrence and evolution process of engine faults. In order to address the problems with the commonly used data driven methods, the DP + LSTM model is employed to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of the engine. Finally, the proposed PHM framework is validated experimentally using NASA’s commercial modular aero-propulsion system simulation dataset, and the results indicate that the DP model has higher stability than the classical artificial neural network method in fault diagnosis, whereas the DP + LSTM model has higher accuracy in RUL estimation than other classical deep learning methods.