Abstract
For years, international lenders have looked for new methods for evaluating both the ability and willingness of sovereign borrowers to repay their external debt obligations. This paper presents an application of a classification technique, known as profile-analysis, which might be used as an early warning indicator for the interruption of sovereign debt payments. The potential usefulness of this technique was demonstrated by successfully classifying the Philippines as a candidate for debt rescheduling one year prior to its 1984 debt restructuring agreement. Although preliminary in scope, this study suggests that profile-analysis might be an important supplement in the management of an international loan portfolio.
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