A Production Prediction Model of Tight Gas Well Optimized with a Back Propagation (BP) Neural Network Based on the Sparrow Search Algorithm

Abstract

The production of tight gas wells decreases rapidly, and the traditional method is difficult to accurately predict the production of tight gas wells. At present, intelligent algorithms based on big data have been applied in oil and gas well production prediction, but there are still some technical problems. For example, the traditional error back propagation neural network (BP) still has the problem of finding the local optimal value, resulting in low prediction accuracy. In order to solve this problem, this paper establishes the output prediction method of BP neural network optimized with the sparrow search algorithm (SSA), and optimizes the hyperparameters of BP network such as activation function, training function, hidden layer, and node number based on examples, and constructs a high-precision SSA-BP neural network model. Data from 20 tight gas wells, the SSA-BP neural network model, Hongyuan model, and Arps model are predicted and compared. The results indicate that when the proportion of the predicted data is 20%, the SSA-BP model predicts an average absolute mean percentage error of 20.16%. When the proportion of forecast data is 10% of the total data, the SSA-BP algorithm has high accuracy and high stability. When the proportion of predicted data is 10%, the mean absolute average percentage error is 3.97%, which provides a new method for tight gas well productivity prediction.