A process for anticipating and shaping adversarial behavior

Abstract

AbstractA new approach for anticipating and shaping adversarial behavior is developed and demonstrated. The approach extends the notion of prediction, which is a forecast of the future from a third party point of view, to anticipation, which is a forecast from the perspective of an entity having partial control in a domain. Shaping utilizes the models developed for anticipation to determine actions that influence another influential entity (e.g., an enemy) and actions to direct the emergent phenomena of a domain according to an entity's objectives. The approach is developed using principles of control theory and demonstrated in the southeastern region of Afghanistan. A key capability demonstrated by this approach is its ability to handle proactive adversaries when actionable intelligence is nonexistent. In the demonstration, Taliban (Red) combat actions are anticipated from the perspective of the coalition forces (Blue) across time, across space, and by the current state of the region and then shaped to Blue's desires. Shaping identifies periods of time that simultaneous or alternating Blue combat actions in different regions help meet Blue's military and nonmilitary objectives. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011