A process-based approach to predicting the effect of climate change on the distribution of an invasive allergenic plant in Europe.

Jonathan Storkey,Pierre Stratonovitch,Francesco Vidotto,Mikhail A Semenov,Daniel S Chapman,Bruno Hérault

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0088156

Jonathan Storkey, Pierre Stratonovitch + Show 4 more

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088156

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Abstract

Ambrosia artemisiifolia is an invasive weed in Europe with highly allergenic pollen. Populations are currently well established and cause significant health problems in the French Rhône valley, Austria, Hungary and Croatia but transient or casual introduced populations are also found in more Northern and Eastern European countries. A process-based model of weed growth, competition and population dynamics was used to predict the future potential for range expansion of A.artemisiifolia under climate change scenarios. The model predicted a northward shift in the available climatic niche for populations to establish and persist, creating a risk of increased health problems in countries including the UK and Denmark. This was accompanied by an increase in relative pollen production at the northern edge of its range. The southern European limit for A.artemisiifolia was not expected to change; populations continued to be limited by drought stress in Spain and Southern Italy. The process-based approach to modelling the impact of climate change on plant populations has the advantage over correlative species distribution models of being able to capture interactions of climate, land use and plant competition at the local scale. However, for this potential to be fully realised, additional empirical data are required on competitive dynamics of A.artemisiifolia in different crops and ruderal plant communities and its capacity to adapt to local conditions.

Highlights

Climate change may impact the severity of pollen induced atopic disease by affecting the large scale distribution and local prevalence of allergenic species, the timing and amount of pollen produced and the allergenicity of individual pollen grains
A species of particular concern in Europe is Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., an alien plant in Europe that has expanded its range over recent decades
It is responsible for significant health and economic impacts in the most infected areas namely a) in the Pannonian Plain in Central Europe including Hungary and neighbouring countries especially Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Slovakia and Romania [1,2,3,4], b) in the Rhone Valley in France [5] and c) in Western Lombardy, Italy [6]

Summary

Introduction

Climate change may impact the severity of pollen induced atopic disease by affecting the large scale distribution and local prevalence of allergenic species, the timing and amount of pollen produced and the allergenicity of individual pollen grains. (common ragweed), an alien plant in Europe that has expanded its range over recent decades It is responsible for significant health and economic impacts in the most infected areas namely a) in the Pannonian Plain in Central Europe including Hungary and neighbouring countries especially Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Slovakia and Romania [1,2,3,4], b) in the Rhone Valley in France [5] and c) in Western Lombardy, Italy [6]. A.artemisiifolia is an annual plant with origins in North America It was first observed in Europe in the mid 19th Century, it began to spread rapidly in Europe after 1940 via transportation networks and contaminated crop seed [7]. Once established in a country, control measures are labour intensive and expensive [9] and there are benefits to anticipating the potential future distribution and impact of the species under climate change to inform surveillance of regions that are vulnerable to populations establishing

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