A procedure to estimate worst-case air quality in complex terrain

Abstract

Using a straightforward synoptic climatological analysis scheme, it is shown that the potential for an area to experience air quality degradation due to local sources is highest under polar subtropical highs. With respect to polar highs, the problem is most severe when the sun angle is low and snow covers the ground, and the polar high persists for a long period of time. A simple algorithm is introduced which is designed to estimate worst-case impact in a trapping valley. The potential for the accumulation of air pollution in such valleys due to the persistence of a polar high in a region, is ignored in current regulatory air quality assessments. Trapping valleys and synoptic flow stagnation often occur in wilderness areas. Refined air quality assessments are shown to be possible using a mesoscale meteorological model and a pollution dispersion model. These tools permit quantitative assessments of pollution build-up from local sources as a result of the recirculation of the local air. This tool, along with the synoptic climatological classification scheme, also permits an evaluation of the fractional contribution of long range versus local sources in the air quality degradation in a region. Areas near the center of a polar or subtropical surface high pressure system, for instance, appear to be dominated by local sources, if they exist, whereas in the vicinity of extratropical cyclones, long-range transport is usually much more important.