A procedure for assessing the functional reliability of hospital systems

Abstract

An effective reliability-based procedure is presented to assess the capability of hospitals to be functional after a seismic event of a given intensity. Every major function in a hospital depends on the joint action of various cooperating services, which in turn are made up from a certain number of sub-services. Such a complex organization is described in terms of a logical scheme and subsequently reduced to a minimal cut-set representation. For each sub-service a collapse criterion is defined, by which the strength is compared to the action load, both represented as random variables. Strengths are evaluated through assessment analyses based on design drawings. Loads are evaluated from 3-D linear dynamic analyses under seismic input. This is given by the Eurocode 8 elastic response spectrum, scaled at a given peak ground acceleration and account for the position of the sub-service within the building. By calculating the failure probability of each service by FORM (First Order Reliability Method) or SORM (Second Order Reliability Methods), the probability of functional interruption is obtained in terms of Didevsen bounds, conditional on a given earthquake intensity. The method helps to single out weak elements and potential sources of damage (structural, non-structural, equipment) within the hospital. This allows: (a) to investigate quantitatively the effectiveness of different upgrading criteria, (b) to select rationally intervention hypotheses, both in the retrofitting and rehabilitation of existing hospitals and in the design optimization of new ones, and (c) to evaluate different investment options for seismic vulnerability mitigation. As an example, an application to a case study hospital is presented.