A probabilistic power flow calculation method considering the uncertainty of the static frequency characteristic

Abstract

In a power system, power generation and load have frequency response characteristics, which randomly fluctuate with changes in operating status. This study investigates a probabilistic power flow method that considers the unit and load uncertainty of the static frequency characteristic. Firstly, a calculation model is established on the basis of the characteristics of the frequency modulation performance of the unit and load. Then a calculation method is developed using the concept of dynamic power flow in order to determine the probability distribution of the active power flow of each line under the occurrence of a fault in the system. In the method, Monte Carlo sampling with the semi-invariant method is applied for analysis and calculation. The IEEE-30-buses system is taken as an example to analyze the impact of different responses of units on the power flow distribution of various branches. The method discussed herein is compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method to verify its effectiveness.