A Probabilistic Modeling Method for Joint Output of Multi Energy Combined Generation System

Abstract

Existing methods cannot accurately establish the joint output probabilistic model of the Wind-PV-CSP multi-energy complementary generation system. Therefore, based on the analysis of the correlation and complementarity among wind power, PV, and CSP output, a method of establishing the joint output probability model of Wind-PV-CSP multi-energy complementary system by using Copula theory and Gaussian mixture model is proposed. Considering the operational history data of wind power, PV, and CSP, the Copula function based on the correlation between PV and CSP output is adopted to establish the probabilistic model of CSP-PV combined output. Moreover, the probabilistic model for the joint output of PV-wind power generation is set up using the mixed Gaussian model based on the complementarity of wind power and PV output. Subsequently, based on the probabilistic models for the combined outputs of wind power-PV and CSP-PV, the probabilistic model for the combined output of wind power-PV-CSP mixed Gaussian model was established. Moreover, three evaluation metrics-the Nash efficiency coefficient (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE), and Euclid coefficient, are used to judge the quality of the model. The operational history data of CSP-PV-wind power in Jiuquan high proportion renewable energy base is taken as examples; the simulation results verify the validity and usability of the proposed method.