A probabilistic modeling approach to assess human inhalation exposure risks to airborne aflatoxin B 1 (AFB 1)

Abstract

To assess how the human lung exposure to airborne aflatoxin B 1 (AFB 1) during on-farm activities including swine feeding, storage bin cleaning, corn harvest, and grain elevator loading/unloading, we present a probabilistic risk model, appraised with empirical data. The model integrates probabilistic exposure profiles from a compartmental lung model with the reconstructed dose–response relationships based on an empirical three-parameter Hill equation model, describing AFB 1 cytotoxicity for inhibition response in human bronchial epithelial cells, to quantitatively estimate the inhalation exposure risks. The risk assessment results implicate that exposure to airborne AFB 1 may pose no significance to corn harvest and grain elevator loading/unloading activities, yet a relatively high risk for swine feeding and storage bin cleaning. Applying a joint probability function method based on exceedence profiles, we estimate that a potential high risk for the bronchial region (inhibition=56.69% with 95% confidence interval (CI): 35.05–72.87%) and bronchiolar region (inhibition=44.93% with 95% CI: 21.61 – 66.78%) is alarming during swine feeding activity. We parameterized the proposed predictive model that should encourage a risk-management framework for discussion of carcinogenic risk in occupational settings where inhalation of AFB 1-contaminated dust occurs.