Abstract
A probabilistic model for predicting fatigue crack growth rate and cycles to reach a given crack length is presented. The stochastic characterizations of crack growth parameters c and m in the Paris-Erdogan and Forman laws are investigated based upon crack growth experiments. According to the stochastic characterizations of c and m, the statistical distributions of crack growth rate da dN and cycles to reach a given crack length are found using the Monte-Carlo simulation technique. The predicted results agree closely with those of crack growth experiments of aluminium alloy Ly12-cz. It is shown that this model may be used in engineering.
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