Abstract
A probabilistic methodology for evaluating hazard alerting systems is described that can be used in vehicle, transportation system, and process control applications. A means of showing the tradeoff between false alarms and missed detections is presented using signal detection theory concepts. The methodology accounts for uncertainties in measurement sources, alerting thresholds and displays, the human operator, and the situation dynamics. An example demonstration of the methodology is provided using the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS), an alerting system designed to prevent mid-air collisions between aircraft
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