A probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards

Mingdong Zang,Nengxiong Xu,Jianbing Peng,Zhijie Jia

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-87995-1

Mingdong Zang, Nengxiong Xu + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87995-1

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Abstract

Earth fissures caused by tectonic forces, human activities, or both seriously threaten the safety of people’s lives and properties. The Taiyuan Basin, a Cenozoic downfaulted basin located in the centre of the Fen-Wei Basin tectonic belt, in northwestern China, presents the ideal study area for a hazard assessment of earth fissures. A total of 104 earth fissures have been observed in the Taiyuan Basin, with a total length of approximately 128 km. In this paper, we proposed a probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards by integrating the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the area under the curve (AUC), and the certainty factor model (CFM). Geomorphic units, geologic formations, active faults and land subsidence zones of the Taiyuan Basin were mapped in detail. Correlations between these factors and earth fissures were evaluated through spatial modelling in ArcGIS. The AUC was introduced into the AHP to weight each factor and thus, to derive an earth fissure susceptibility map. Finally, the modelled earth fissure susceptibility was compared with a digital inventory of earth fissures to develop a probability function and map the spatial variability in failure probability through the CFM. The study indicates that active faults have the greatest contribution to the generation of earth fissures. Earth fissures are prone to develop in the piedmont alluvial-diluvial clinoplain and the transitional zone near the geomorphic boundary. This mapping procedure can assist in making rational decisions regarding urban planning and infrastructure development in areas susceptible to earth fissures.

Highlights

Earth fissures caused by tectonic forces, human activities, or both seriously threaten the safety of people’s lives and properties
The generation of earth fissures is mainly influenced by geomorphic units, geologic formations, faults, and land subsidence6,10,11,23,367273,74
No earth fissure was found in the alluvial plain (AP), loess hill (LH), loess hillock (LHK) and alluvial-lacustrine clinoplain (ALC); these units were rated as zero

Summary

Introduction

Earth fissures caused by tectonic forces, human activities, or both seriously threaten the safety of people’s lives and properties. We proposed a probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards by integrating the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the area under the curve (AUC), and the certainty factor model (CFM). Geomorphic units, geologic formations, active faults and land subsidence zones of the Taiyuan Basin were mapped in detail Correlations between these factors and earth fissures were evaluated through spatial modelling in ArcGIS. Earth fissures are geotechnical surface ruptures formed as a result of internal and external geological forces. They have created serious hazards around the world, including in the United S tates1–3, China4–12, Mexico13-15, Ethiopia[16,17], New Z ealand18, Pakistan[19], Saudi Arabia[20], and I ran[21]. The conventional AHP has two main disadvantages: first, expert subjectivity in pairwise comparisons fails to quantify the weight of each factor[47,50]; second, without a completed database, the results from the AHP method are expressed as a range of scores, not the probability of hazard occurrence

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