A Probabilistic Framework for Seismic Risk Assessment of Electric Power Systems

Abstract

Uncertainty quantification in seismic risk assessment of spatially distributed infrastructure systems such as electric power systems poses two main challenges: (i) seismic hazard modeling that considers both the spatial variation in intensity for each hazard event as well as the probability of occurrence of the event, and (ii) system performance formulation that captures the probabilistic nature of component vulnerability and accessibility. This paper introduces a framework for seismic risk assessment of electric power systems that takes into account these challenges. Seismic hazard is modeled using a probabilistically weighted deterministic hazard scenarios approach in which a suite of earthquake scenarios with their corresponding annual probabilities of occurrence is considered. System performance is modeled using a probabilistic topological-based approach that considers component accessibility and vulnerability. The framework is demonstrated using a notional electric power system assumed to be located in Charleston, South Carolina, and New York City, New York. The framework can be used for pre-disaster preparation, mitigation, and post-disaster response planning.