Abstract
AbstractThe vertical flux of mass by atmospheric convection, and convective cloud systems in particular, is a key quantity used in parametrization schemes for numerical weather‐prediction models and climate models. The concept of formulating mass fluxes in terms of statistical quantities is discussed and a probabilistic description of the upward mass fluxes, based on extreme‐value theory, is presented. This approach is illustrated by a statistical analysis of two‐dimensional, numerical realizations of two regimes of tropical convection, namely squall lines and non‐squall clusters. Our statistical model allows these distinct cloud systems, which play a key role in determining the shape of the mass‐flux profile, to be efficiently integrated. Also taken into account is the distinction between mesoscale and convective components of the mass flux. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.
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