A Probabilistic Approach to Quantify Flood Risk of Chinese Railway Networks

Abstract

This paper provides a probabilistic approach for the risk assessment of infrastructure networks subject to floods. The proposed risk analysis method integrates both infrastructure components’ failure probability and the expected infrastructure network efficiency or capacity loss due to component failure. The failure probability of Chinese railway system caused by floods is quantitatively analyzed using Random Forest model and historical disaster events. The expected impact of a component failure on the whole network is evaluated by calculating the efficiency loss due to the deletion of railway links. The flood risk mapping and risk curves of the national railway networks are generated, which can guide infrastructure managers and planners for decisive action of investment in preventative measures to reduce risk.