A probabilistic approach to mid-term conflict detection with accuracy estimate

Abstract

This paper describes an approach to mid-term probabilistic conflict detection between two aircraft flying at the same altitude. The key distinguishing feature of the proposed method is that it analytically estimates the conflict probability, in the presence of a fully correlated wind field. The method uses a two-step approach. First, the mean and the covariance of the aircraft relative position are computed analytically. Then, the conflict probability is estimated such that a desired level of accuracy is obtained. Numerical results, conducted using a simulator incorporating a fully correlated wind field model, show the effectiveness of the approach versus the competitors. Finally, sensitivity of the method to the parameters is investigated.