A probabilistic approach to lifetime design of offshore platforms

Abstract

Offshore platforms are considered critical infrastructure as any disruption in their lifetime service can rapidly result in a great loss to arise. While these structures are often designed for their initial construction cost, it is worth considering a lifetime-based design so that both direct and indirect costs are involved in the design process. Here, a probabilistic-based approach to life-cycle-cost (LCC) analysis of offshore platforms is proposed. A fixed offshore platform is designed first based on the current design regulations and for a 100-year return period. For the effect of LCC on design optimization, the simultaneous effect of the wave, current, and wind merging are probabilistically considered. The structural elements are designed for five different models; one model based on the current design requirements and the rest for more than the requirements. The LCC of each model is accordingly determined. The results show that the code-based model is not optimal when is compared with a lifetime cost period; it is necessary to increase the size of structural elements by up to 10% to meet an optimum point. Results show that with a 5% increase in the initial cost, a decrease in the LCC up to about 46% is observed. The work presented here is to stimulate stakeholders to promote the LCC-based design of important structures to reduce lifetime costs.