A Probabilistic Approach of Electrical Energy Forecasting

Abstract

The optimal use of national energy resources requires long term energy forecasting. The consumption of electricity is the most sophisticated form of energy use. It is also one of the major energy consumption sectors. This paper presents a methodology of forecasting long term electrical energy demand. The methodology is based on the forecasting of long term hourly demand. A relationship is developed among the forecasted annual/seasonal average hourly load and the probabilistic laws of load ratios to forecast the hourly load. The proposed methodology is validated by applying it to the power system of Bangladesh Power Development Board