A probabilistic approach for quantifying children’s subitizing span

Abstract

The development of enumeration skills over childhood is thought to reflect improvements in both subitizing (for small sets) and serial counting (for larger sets). However, investigations into the contribution of subitizing to advancing mathematics ability are limited by challenges in measuring subitizing capacity across developmental populations. Subitizing capacity in adults is traditionally assessed by calculating the bilinear inflection point for reaction times or accuracy across set sizes, but in children greater variability and dramatic improvements in counting ability introduce problems with this approach. This study demonstrates this limitation in a sample of elementary school children and proposes a novel probabilistic approach to measuring subitizing capacity. This metric captures well-established trends in the development of children’s subitizing. Furthermore, the proposed metric predicts unique variance in symbolic arithmetic ability, corroborating previous research that suggests a foundational role for subitizing in the development of numerical cognition. Findings demonstrate the advantages of a probabilistic approach to determining subitizing capacity in young children and suggest that it may be practically and theoretically well-suited for investigating subitizing and its role in mathematics development.