Abstract
Based on the rainfall data taken from the Public Meteorological Service Center, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the calibration of the precipitation forecast has been performed by using frequency matching method (FMM) and threshold method. Then the performance of calibration is evaluated by using MAE, TS, etc. The results show that the calibration can significantly reduce the ensemble system’s false alarm of light rain and improve the QPF for a “Rain or No Rain” event. The calibrated precipitation forecasts are much closer to the observation, and the mean absolute error and area bias (dry bias or wet bias) of the ensemble system are reduced considerably.
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