A preliminary study of climatological associations and characteristics of tropical cyclones in the SW Indian Ocean

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TC) in the data-sparse SW Indian Ocean region are studied through climatological and statistical associations and case study structure. Differences between summers with more and less TC are identified with a view to the prediction of seasonal frequencies. In summers with more TC, upper easterlies and lower westerlies over the equatorial zone north of Madagascar form a Walker cell anomaly in conjunction with the east phase of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), while sea surface temperatures (SST) are above normal in the preceding spring (>28°C). In the sub-tropics, easterly trade winds strengthen while mid-latitude westerlies shift polewards and SST are below normal (<23°C). OLR departures in “more TC” summers are <−15 Wm−2 over region frequented by tropical cyclones.