A Preliminary Proposal for a Probabilistic Performance-Based Hurricane Engineering Framework

Abstract

This paper proposes an innovative fully probabilistic Performance-Based Hurricane Engineering (PBHE) approach for risk assessment and design of structural systems located in hurricane-prone regions. The methodology is based on the Total Probability Theorem and disaggregates the risk assessment analysis into independent elementary components, namely hazard analysis, structural characterization, interaction analysis, structural analysis, damage analysis, and loss analysis. The proposed PBHE methodology accounts for the multi-hazard nature of hurricane events by including the separate effects of, and the interaction among, hurricane wind, flood, windborne debris, and rainfall hazard. A review of existing models with the ability to describe the different sources of hazard is performed, and a consistent vector of intensity measures for hurricane hazard analysis is proposed. The PBHE approach illustrated in this paper represents a first step toward a rational methodology for risk assessment and design of structures subjected to multi-hazard scenarios. INTRODUCTION Performance-Based Engineering (PBE) is a general methodology that (1) defines the performance objectives for structural systems during their design life, (2) provides criteria and methods for verifying the achievement of these performance objectives, and (3) offers appropriate methodologies to improve the design of structural systems. In the last two decades, significant research efforts have been devoted to the development of PBE in earthquake engineering (Ellingwood 2001, Porter 2003), and have led, e.g., to the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research center (PEER) Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) framework (Porter 2003). Several motivations have generated significant interest in the possible development and extension of PBE to other subfields of civil engineering (Augusti and Ciampoli 2008). In particular, Performance-Based Blast Engineering has received considerable attention in the US after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 (Hamburger and Whittaker 2003). Other PBE 1618 Structures Congress 2011 © ASCE 2011