Abstract
Abstract We modeled population dynamics and extinction probabilities for the endangered Wood Stork (Mycteria americana) using count data from synoptic aerial surveys, annual measures of productivity from throughout the southeastern U.S., and survival data from satellite-tagged juveniles. Using a simple, count-based diffusion approximation approach we were able to quantify an increasing population trend since 1976. High inter-year variability resulted in wide confidence intervals and we could not eliminate the possibility of long-term population decline in spite of recently measured population increases. We also used a stage-based population matrix model to incorporate observed differences in survival rates among age classes. Fledging success, and survival of fledglings, one, and two-year-old birds were estimated using data from the satellite telemetry study. Because the survival rates of three-year-olds and adults are presently unknown, we analyzed population dynamics over a range of these values. Long-te...
Published Version
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