A preliminary method of predicting plant species distributions using the British National Vegetation Classification

Abstract

1. The British National Vegetation Classification (NVC) was used to develop a modelling system to predict the habitat suitability for plant species on the basis of environment and management information. 2. The model was developed for a subset of 27 plant communities (containing 534 species) in the area of the catchment of the River Tyne in north-east England. Environmental inputs into the model included climate and soil data, whilst management inputs included sheep stocking rates, fertilizer applications and cutting regimes. 3. The model was validated by comparing the predicted plant communities and species with those observed at two sites of contrasting scales: at a farm scale on 96 ha of moorland on a Northumberland farm, and at a landscape scale on 15 km 2 of upland moor in Northumberland. 4. The accuracy of the model predictions for plant communities appeared to be related to their spatial scale, whilst the accuracy of species predictions was dependant on their constancy within communities. Predictions were more accurate for species than for communities. 5. The potential use of this modelling approach, and possible extensions to the methodology, are discussed in relation to land management.