A predictive timeline of wildlife population collapse.

Abstract

Contemporary rates of biodiversity decline emphasize the need for reliable ecological forecasting, but current methods vary in their ability to predict the declines of real-world populations. Acknowledging that stressor effects start at the individual level, and that it is the sum of these individual-level effects that drives populations to collapse, shifts the focus of predictive ecology away from using predominantly abundance data. Doing so opens new opportunities to develop predictive frameworks that utilize increasingly available multi-dimensional data, which have previously been overlooked for ecological forecasting. Here, we propose that stressed populations will exhibit a predictable sequence of observable changes through time: changes in individuals' behaviour will occur as the first sign of increasing stress, followed by changes in fitness-related morphological traits, shifts in the dynamics (for example, birth rates) of populations and finally abundance declines. We discuss how monitoring the sequential appearance of these signals may allow us to discern whether a population is increasingly at risk of collapse, or is adapting in the face of environmental change, providing a conceptual framework to develop new forecasting methods that combine multi-dimensional (for example, behaviour, morphology, life history and abundance) data.