A predictive study of cupressaceae pollen season onset, severity, maximum value and maximum value date

Abstract

In this paper Cupressaceae pollen season onset, severity, maximum value and maximum value date, have been studied for 15 consecutive years (1982–1996). The data set was obtained using a Hirst spore-trap (Burkard Manufacturing). In order to determine the influence of the previous months’ meteorological variables on Cupressaceae season’s parameters, the sums of maximum, average and minimum temperatures, and total rainfall for the months of October, November and December were used as independent variables in predictive formulae built by multiple regression analyses. The variance explained percentage by regression analyses varied between 60 and 87%. Total rainfall in the months prior to anthesis and temperature (particularly minimum temperature) are important factors to consider in forecasting models of Cupressaceae pollen season parameters, but meteorological conditions at the time of pollen production are also important and can modify the pre-established potential of pollination.