A predictive strategy to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Saudi economy

Abstract

This study aimed to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Saudi Arabia's economy and to propose a strategy based on forecasting to lessen the negative effects of the pandemic while looking ahead to economic opportunities after the pandemic. The research utilized ARIMA models to predict important economic measures in Saudi Arabia, such as GDP, exports, imports, investment in assets, consumer spending, unemployment rates, inflation rates, and oil production, up to 2028, using the Box-Jenkins method. The results showed that the pandemic initially had a detrimental effect on the Saudi economy, with decreases in GDP, exports, and imports, as well as increases in unemployment and inflation. However, the study forecasts a positive recovery and growth in the economy after COVID-19. It recommends the adoption of a national policy to address the COVID-19 challenges, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive economic strategy to tackle the issues brought by the pandemic and to navigate the post-pandemic economic environment. This approach is in line with Vision 2030 and is intended to guide policymakers in developing and implementing strategies to reduce the pandemic's economic impact and support economic recovery.