A Predictive Scoring Model for Short-Term Local Recurrent Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Based on Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

Abstract

To predict the early identification of recurrence based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) patients. The clinical and MRI data of 215 patients with local recurrent NPC were retrospectively reviewed. Logistic regression analysis was performed to distinguish the independent risk factors for the short-term (less than 24 months) local recurrence of NPC. The predictive score model was based on the regression coefficients of significant independent variables. Residual disease in the nasopharyngeal cavity (NC), masticator space invasion (MSI), skull base bone erosion (SBBE), and MRI-detected cranial nerve invasion (MDCNI) were all significant independent risk factors for the short-term recurrence of NPC (p < 0.05). The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the total score had a maximal AUC (area under the curve) value of 0.897, with a cutoff point of 10.50. The sensitivity and specificity were 79.4% and 80.5%, respectively. Residual lesions in NC, MSI, SBBE, and MDCNI are independent risk factors in predicting the short-term recurrence of NPC. The authors' findings suggest that patients with a score of more than 10.50 points should be hypervigilant regarding the possibility of short-term recurrence.