A predictive modelling technique for human population distribution and abundance estimation using remote-sensing and geospatial data in a rural mountainous area in Kenya*

Abstract

This study presents a predictive modelling technique to map population distribution and abundance for rural areas in Africa. Prediction models were created using a generalized regression analysis and spatial prediction (GRASP) method that uses the generalized additive model (GAM) regression technique. Dwelling unit presence–absence was mapped from airborne images covering 98 km2 (30% of the study area) and used as a response variable. Remote-sensing-based (reflectance, texture and land cover) and geospatial (topography, climate and distance) data were used as predictors. For the rest of the study area (228 km2; 70%), GAM models were extrapolated, and prediction maps constructed. Model performance was measured as explanatory power (adj.D 2, adjusted deviance change), predictive power (area under the receiver operator curve, AUC) and kappa value (κ). GAM models explained 19–31% of the variation in dwelling-unit occurrence and 28–47% of the variation in human population abundance. The predictive power for population distribution GAM models was good (AUC of 0.80–0.86). This study shows that for the prediction of dwelling-unit distribution and for human population abundance, the best modelling performance was achieved using combined geospatial- and remote-sensing-based predictor variables. The best predictors for modelling the variability in human population distribution using combined predictors were angular second moment image-texture measurement, precipitation, mean elevation, surface reflectance for Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre (SPOT) red and near-infrared (NIR) bands, correlation image-texture measurement and distance to roads, respectively. The population-abundance modelling result was compared with two existing global population datasets: Gridded Population of the World version 3 (GPWv3) and LandScan 2005. The result showed that for regional and local-scale population-estimation probability, models created using remotely sensed and geospatial data were superior compared to GPWv3 or LandScan 2005 data products. Population models had high correlation with Kenyan population census data for 1999 in mountainous sub-locations and low correlation for sub-locations that also extended into the lowlands.